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NFL Trade Deadline Fast Approaching

miamiherald.com

With the rapid approach of the NFL trade deadline, as every year, we begin to hear numerous rumors, a plethora of hypothetical scenarios, innumberable reports regarding the word on the street, unrealistic wish lists and day dreams, etc.  At the end of the day, all of the above gain so little traction, and will be wrong so often that even the weather forecasters look downright genius by comparison.  That being said, I’m not going to speculate on what the ‘Fins get back in trade value, and instead examine what the funds they have in their pocket, and the teams those “funds” apply to.

The most likely scenarios would involve a trade of Matt Moore and a mid-round pick (as many different individuals have linked as potential fodder for a Dwayne Bowe trade), as they have stocked up on extra picks and can afford to part with the for the right player.  I think that Ireland and Philbin put a lot of value on picks, however (which I agree with), and also are fond of Moore, so a trade would only be made with these teams if the right player was offered in return.  Moore also did an admirable job of stepping in when Tannehill went down yesterday, and given the Dolphins current rank being second in the AFC East, I think you see the likelihood diminish here as you can’t put enough value on the insurance policy they have at the quarterback position.  The x-factor here is that if the Dolphins feel they can re-sign David Garrard to back up Tannehill, they might make a jump for the right value.  It would be interesting to see if Devlin or Garrard would be the backup, in that case.

Let’s start by looking at the true value Moore has, vs the value of a team’s starting quarterback.  There were no catastrophic injuries of note this weekend, so we can obviously eliminate the following teams as most unlikely:

Little to no chance: Patriots, Packers, Saints,  Rams, Bengals, Dallas, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Baltimore, Atlanta, Giants, San Diego, Detroit

The following teams also offer little to no chance, as they are starting young quarterbacks of their own that they have invested a lot in: Indianapolis, Washington, Cleveland, Seattle

While they haven’t gotten stellar play from the quarterback position out of Cutler, I believe you can all but eliminate Chicago (too much invested in Cutler, Brandon Marshall would likely revolt).

Two highly unlikely teams with top tier starting quarterbacks that are injury risks, so there is a slightly higher possibility than “no way” would be Denver and Houston.  Peyton Manning hasn’t fully looked like the Peyton Manning of old, however, 85% of Peyton Manning is still better than 95% of quarterbacks.  Matt Schaub is also having a great year for the Texans, and with a team like that should be making a strong push to go deep in the playoffs, it’s a possibility that they will want insurance should Schaub go down.  Denver and Houston have Brock Osweiler and TJ Yates at backup quarterback, so it is a small possibility a move could be made here.

That leaves the following teams as remote possibilities:

Eagles: One intriguing possibility would be the Eagles.  Michael Vick has suddenly regressed, and is also an injury concern.  I doubt a move gets made here, but they have some talent that they could send in return.  I honestly don’t see this happening though, even if I think the Eagles could turn it around with the talent they have if they remove many of the turnovers they are getting from the quarterback position.

Raiders: Not likely, Carson Palmer has been “ok” thus far.

Tennessee:  Two quarterbacks, neither of whom has been impressive overall.  This could be a likely destination, if a move is made

KC: This definitely seems the most likely destination, if this trade is made.  They have a talent that wants out that Miami could use, and they have finally turned to Brady Quinn at quarterback. 

NY Jets: This trade makes no sense, but neither do any of the moves the Jets make at quarterback beyond the fact that they’ve kept Tim Tebow as a backup and not made him the starter.  I honestly think Sanchez can be a serviceable quarterback.  The likelihood this move gets made?  Not likely, but again, the Jets are a chaotic team and it could take place.

Buffalo: I’m not a fan of trading within the division (unless it adds to the chaos, ie the Jets), but it’s also a move that makes sense.  I like Ryan Fitzpatrick, but his consistency issues and ability to finish a season are definitely a big question mark.

Jaguars: This season is lost for the Jags.  They’re just not a good team.  The only way I see this happening is if they are looking to dump someone high priced and at least get a serviceable quarterback to take the reins and possibly manage a few games for them going forward.

Vikings: I am not sold on Cristian Ponder, but I also don’t see this move occurring.

 

In short, this leaves us with Tennessee, the Jets, Buffalo, Jacksonville and maybe the Eagles as possible partners in this scenario, if anything happens.

Anyone have any thoughts for this?  Any possibilities I may have missed?

3 comments

  1. LUDUPORCU

    Drivel

  2. Paul

    Hi Ludu, I appreciate the feedback. Care to elaborate? I honestly don’t think the Dolphins make a trade before the deadline, as is the norm in the NFL, but the most valuable trade chips the Dolphins have to trade without completely hurting their chances at the playoffs (which is realistic given their current record) are Matt Moore (provided Tannehill is healthy) and draft picks.

    Unfortunately, it’s not like baseball, where “playing 2nd base is playing 2nd base,” and “hitting a ball is hitting a ball” with some minor philosophical changes from a coaching standpoint, which is a portion of why you don’t see as many trades in the NFL as in the MLB during the season.

    That said, beyond Matt Moore and a midround pick to a handfull of teams, I really don’t see many trade options that make sense – unless they move a D-lineman for a late round pick, but the value of that pick is negligible to deplete the depth on the D-Line vs the late round pick that the team would get in return. There simply isn’t enough depth at LB, or in the secondary to move anything else on defense.

    On offense, I’m leary of any of the lineman after the starting five being even an admirable fill in if one of the starters were to go down, there isn’t the depth at WR to make a move of note, nor at TE. Running back has depth, but you don’t move an integral part of your offense such as Reggie Bush, nor the two young backs behind him in Miller and Thomas, and Thigpen is finally an answer as a returner that the Dolphins have sought for a while.

    I’m not saying any of these other guys are untouchable, nor would Jeff Ireland, but lets face it… someone would have to make the perfect offer that upgrades the Dolphins enough to warrant depleting them at another position, or a player for player of mid-to-low range grade that just isn’t working out with their current team as well as with the Dolphins…

    As I said, I’d welcome any further elaborations as to your thoughts as to what the ‘fins may do. Keep the comments coming!

  3. LUDUPORCU

    Borscht!

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